118
FXUS61 KLWX 151915
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND A SUBSEQUENT GALE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR INCREASING WINDS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY & POPS OUTLOOKS WERE SLIGHTLY CHANGED TO REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS & POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
- 2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY SUNDAY. DRY EACH PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS & POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
AS A PASSING COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVERALL AS THIS FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
BY TOMORROW, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS RETURNS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A DEEP DIGGING TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEFORE TRACKING TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST, FORMING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENING TIMEFRAME. COMBINED WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES (WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOW-END
INSTABILITY, SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. DUE TO CONDITIONS
REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY (ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.2-1.4 INCHES), THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS DCAPE RANGES IN THE LOW-1000S AND SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE METRO REGIONS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, A QUICK QLCS TORNADO SPIN-
UP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS, ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, WITH PEAK GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 30-40 MPH,
MOST AREAS LIKELY STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CLEAR BY SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY REACH THE
MID-50S AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY.
DRY EACH PERIOD.
A SHARP TRANSITION TO COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THIS DRY AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS CREATES AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS
ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST TO FORM,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-95.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE APPALACHIANS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN PART TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY SOME TOWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS TODAY AS A
STALLING COLD FRONT PRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON & EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER SHOWERS
TRANSITION EAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SOON AFTERWARDS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING BACK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS STAYING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTH 5 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON &
EVENING AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS LATER THAT DAY. A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BAY UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ532>534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...SRT/KLW/KRR
AVIATION...SRT/KLW
MARINE...SRT/KLW
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