450
FXUS61 KLWX 160057 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
857 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT SHOWING
SOLIDLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS & POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
- 2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY SUNDAY. DRY EACH PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS & POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT 07Z OR 08Z BEFORE IT EXITS OUT. LOW CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS RETURNS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A DEEP DIGGING TROUGH FORMING
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, FORMING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENING
TIMEFRAME. COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES (WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON) AND LOW-END INSTABILITY, SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. DUE TO CONDITIONS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY (ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES PWATS RANGING FROM
1.2-1.4 INCHES), THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS DCAPE RANGES IN THE LOW-1000S AND SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE METRO REGIONS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, A QUICK
QLCS TORNADO SPIN- UP IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS, ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, WITH PEAK GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS APPROACHING 30-40 MPH,
MOST AREAS LIKELY STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CLEAR BY SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY REACH THE
MID-50S AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WITH CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE
FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY.
DRY EACH PERIOD.
A SHARP TRANSITION TO COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THIS DRY AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS CREATES AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS
ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST TO FORM,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-95.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE APPALACHIANS COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN PART TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY SOME TOWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER IN THE
EARLY MORNING AFTER SHOWERS TRANSITION EAST, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING SOON AFTERWARDS.
A SECOND COLD FRONT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING BACK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE,
PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS STAYING ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTH 5 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, STAYING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20-25
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON & EVENING AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY
REACHING GALE CONDITIONS LATER THAT DAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BAY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS
THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ532>534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/SRT
MARINE...LFR/KLW/SRT
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