979
FXUS61 KLWX 160750
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE GALE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENT
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS TRACKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THE TROUGH PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, CLOUD COVER DECREASES ALLOWING FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES,
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NORTH
EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SPREADING FROM THE WASHINGTON
DC METRO AREA TO CENTRAL MD AND EASTWARD, IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH NE MD IN A 30% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WIND.
ADDITIONALLY, A QUICK QLCS TORNADO IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NE MD,
WHERE SPC HAS A 2% TORNADO RISK.
PRECIPITATION LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS OVERHEAD. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED,
ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES MAY HAVE PEAK GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES
ARE POSSIBLE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING APPROXIMATELY 25-30 DEGREES
COLDER COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-
OCTOBER. ALTHOUGH A FEW GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A COASTAL LOW
FORMING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST MEMBERS
MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. IF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
COULD CHANGE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. FOGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT CHO THIS
MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG LINGERING ACROSS THE OTHER TERMINALS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS
AND A WIND SHIFT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING STORMS.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY. FOR THE WINDS, SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND ON MONDAY SHIFTS
NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 9AM THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMWS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO
GUSTS AROUND 34 KNOTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH
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