216
FXUS61 KLWX 161213
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNAPOLIS. SEE THE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A POTENT,
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS TRACKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THE TROUGH PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS MORNING,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CLOUD COVER DECREASES ALLOWING FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 70S. WITH WARM
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS AND
NORTH OF US-50/I-66 IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE VICINITY OF NE MD
(30% PROBS). ADDITIONALLY, A QUICK QLCS TORNADO IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN NE MD, WHERE SPC ALSO HAS A 2% TORNADO RISK.
PRECIPITATION LINGERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST PEAK
GUSTS (BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH). ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING APPROXIMATELY 25-30 DEGREES
COLDER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-OCTOBER.
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A COASTAL LOW
FORMING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST MEMBERS
MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. IF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WERE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR. FOGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
CHO THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG/MIST LINGERING ACROSS THE
OTHER TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS AND A WIND SHIFT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY. FOR THE
WINDS, SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND ON MONDAY SHIFT
NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH S
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY W/NW WINDS
AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE WIDER WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER LEVELS THIS MORNING,
WITH THRESHOLD MINOR FLOODING AT ANNAPOLIS. HAVRE DE GRACE AND
ALEXANDRIA COULD COME CLOSE TO MINOR, AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESULTING IN DECREASING WATER LEVELS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IF
THE FRONT IS EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO SLOWER, THESE SAME 3 SITES
COULD HIT MINOR AGAIN THIS EVENING.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/DHOF/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
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