393
FXUS61 KLWX 170751
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A FROST
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
- 2) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES DROP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST(40S MTNS). HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED. THIS CREATES A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXPANDING
INTO PORTIONS OF NE MARYLAND. ADDITIONALLY,A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND EAST OF THE FREEZE
WARNING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN GRADUALLY WARMING ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S.
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZE DIMINISH AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, PART OF
IT CUTS OFF ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR'EASTER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM THEN
MEANDERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST, BUT GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON
ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH. FORECAST MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION NOR'EASTER NEXT WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT RETROGRADING FURTHER
WESTWARD. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD, IT COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL IMPACTS. WITH THIS MID-LEVEL LOW BEING CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN STEERING FLOW, IT COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEAST BREEZES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
REGIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS
EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR TERMINALS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP NEXT WEEK FROM SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR'EASTER LURKING OFFSHORE. NORTHEAST WINDS
COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM
GETS.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS IN
EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE OPEN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
NEXT WEEK, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND A NOR'EASTER MAY REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE WIDER/SOUTHERN WATERS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ003>006-501-
502-507-509-510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ503-505.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
503>505-507-508.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ036>040-050-
051-501-502-506-526.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ532>534-537-543.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KVH
AVIATION...AVS/KVH
MARINE...AVS/KVH
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