882
FXUS61 KLWX 171415
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED HOURLY TRENDS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. MADE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND FROST/FREEZE EXPIRATION
TIMES BASED ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
- 2) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AS OF MID
MORNING. ANAFRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD DEPART BY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER JET STREAK IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND IS LEADING TO CLOUD BREAKS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GRADUAL
CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES DROP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST (40S MTNS). GUSTY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
TONIGHT'S COLD AIR WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH
SOME DECOUPLING MAY OCCUR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. WINDS REMAIN MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN TO
THE EAST, AND WHILE IT WILL BE CHILLY, THIS MAY MAINTAIN NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS (THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S) TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. UNLESS 12Z GUIDANCE
SHIFTS, FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE FROST ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY.
WHILE THE FREEZE WARNING AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE,
IT MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ALONG/EAST OF I-81.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN GRADUALLY WARMING ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S (IN ANY
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT END TONIGHT). BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZE DIMINISH AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY, PART OF
IT CUTS OFF ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR'EASTER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM THEN
MEANDERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST, BUT GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON
ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH. FORECAST MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION NOR'EASTER NEXT WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT RETROGRADING FURTHER
WESTWARD. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD, IT COULD LEAD
TO LOCAL IMPACTS. WITH THIS MID-LEVEL LOW BEING CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN STEERING FLOW, IT COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEAST BREEZES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
REGIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD EXIT CHO SHORTLY. VFR CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTY 20
TO 30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS
EACH AFTERNOON.
FOR TERMINALS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP NEXT WEEK FROM SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR'EASTER LURKING OFFSHORE. NORTHEAST WINDS
COULD BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM
GETS.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS IN
EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE OPEN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
NEXT WEEK, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND A NOR'EASTER MAY REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE WIDER/SOUTHERN WATERS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MDZ003>006-501- 502-507-509-510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ503-505.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
503>505-507-508.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ036>040-050-
051-501-502-506-526.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ050>053-055- 501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530-531-536- 538>542. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ532>534-537-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KVH
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KVH
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KVH
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