831
FXUS61 KLWX 211719
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
119 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NBM
WAS TOO HIGH GIVEN DRY AIRMASS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH STOUT CUTOFF LOWS ALONG
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS HIGHS
GENERALLY REACH THE 60S EACH DAY, THEN FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO 40S
AT NIGHT. THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK,
EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH DRY COLD FRONTS REINFORCING THE COOLER,
ALBEIT SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES. ONE OF THESE HIGHS THAT PASSES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. WE COULD EXPERIENCE COLDER TEMPS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IF TEMPS DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SLIGHT WARM UP IN TEMPS TO AROUND 70F FOR NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TODAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT TERMINALS (ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95) NEAR THE WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS MAINLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT IS HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS, NO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE APPROACH
THE FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 26, ALONG WITH BEING IN KING TIDE SEASON
(THOUGH WE ARE ALREADY PAST THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THAT WERE
AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER). SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH ACTION STAGE DURING MOST OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK,
WITH SENSITIVE LOCATIONS AT ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, DAHLGREN,
AND ALEXANDRIA REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THE PRESENCE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
DISCUSSION...KRR
AVIATION...EST
MARINE...EST
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