105
FXUS61 KLWX 221417
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST WITH ONLY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WITH DRY COLD FRONTS
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMET INTO THE 30S FOR MOST. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW 40S. FROST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO EAST WINDS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD TRY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE
WITH IT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A SURGE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH TERMINALS NEAR THE METROS
GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS BLOW 5
TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY, REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
FRIDAY MORNING AS SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE TRACKS NE AWAY
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE WIND GUSTS
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE APPROACH
THE FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 26, ALONG WITH BEING IN KING TIDE SEASON
(THOUGH WE ARE ALREADY PAST THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THAT WERE
AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER). SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH ACTION STAGE DURING MOST OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK,
WITH LOCATIONS AT ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, DAHLGREN, STRAITS POINT,
AND ALEXANDRIA REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THE PRESENCE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ057.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
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