821
FXUS61 KLWX 230046
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES NEEDED. COASTAL FLOODING ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CHECK THE LATEST CFW FOR UPDATES. ALSO, SEE
THE MARINE FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TONIGHT'S
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA WITH DRY COLD FRONTS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
PLUMMET INTO THE 30S FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW 40S. FROST
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO EAST WINDS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD TRY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE
WITH IT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A SURGE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY,
REMAINING LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN
TURN OUT OF THE NNE ON TUESDAY AOB 10 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE NORTHERN BAY, BUT THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE WIND GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA, SO THAT SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NNE
AND INCREASE A BIT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA IN CHANNELING FLOW ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE APPROACH
THE FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 26, ALONG WITH BEING IN KING TIDE SEASON
(THOUGH WE ARE ALREADY PAST THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THAT WERE
AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER). SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH ACTION STAGE DURING MOST OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK,
WITH ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, DAHLGREN, STRAITS POINT, AND
ALEXANDRIA EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES.
NUMEROUS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS, WITH EXTENSIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE PRESENCE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ016-018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW/CJL
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CJL
MARINE...AVS/KLW/CJL
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