888
FXUS61 KLWX 242330
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
730 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MARYLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THESE
ADVISORIES, THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD WITH FROST ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN MARYLAND.
- 2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD WITH FROST
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MARYLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT FEW GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
PERSISTENCE IN REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING IN THE 31 -36 DEGREE
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE METROS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 20S) OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THAT SAID, FROST
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MD FROM 1 TO 9AM SUNDAY. FROST WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE GIVEN THE DECISION OF AN ADVISORY VS. WARNING ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS.
THESE LOCATIONS ARE ALSO STILL IN THE GROWING SEASON FOR 2026 WHILE
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE NO LONGER ACTIVE. LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE ADVISORY (ALONG AND EAST OF I-95) WILL ALSO HAVE A
CHANCE AT SOME FROST IN THE COLDER POCKETS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER GIVEN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INFLUENCE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER FOR AN ADVISORY EXPANSION INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN MD DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER, AS A REMNANT STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD
AND POSSIBLY BANKING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR LESS OF A MARINE INFLUENCE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR ONE MORE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT) BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER RETURN
FLOW EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE OF A RIDGE-
VALLEY SPLIT TYPE OF NIGHT WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE
VALLEYS/COLD POCKETS/LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 COMPARED TO
THE RIDGE TOPS GIVEN THE SHARP SURFACE INVERSION/DECOUPLING.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS MIN TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS, WHICH ARE NEAR OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WHICH
PERFORMS BEST IN RADIATIONAL COOLING (MOS, NBM 10TH PERCENTILE AND
CANADIAN REGIONAL).
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING AIRMASS MIXES TO THE SURFACE.
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LIKELY TRAVERSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AS MOISTURE/PWATS REMAIN LOW.
AT MOST, CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MID-70S AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
POTENTIALLY MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. IMPACTS
FROM THIS LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, AS PWATS CONTINUE TO RANGE ON
THE DRY SIDE WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. OVERALL, NO PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 60S-70S DURING THE DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN STRATOCUMULUS THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EARLY SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS LOW IN THE
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF FOG WITH A FOCUS ON MONDAY MORNING COMPARED
TO SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LASTEST HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL CHANGE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH SPEEDS BOTH DAYS
LESS THAN 10KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT, THEN SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL VARY A BIT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH COULD BRING WIND GUSTS
NEAR SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GENERALLY LIGHT BUT STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY. WHEN PAIRED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 26,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. ANNAPOLIS
HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A MORE NOTABLE DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS BY MONDAY
WHEN FLOW FINALLY TURNS WESTERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ004>006-008-
503-505-507-508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ040-051-501-
502-505-506-526-527.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
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