697
FXUS61 KLWX 251923
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT FROM 1 TO 9 AM
MONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THERE HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ONE MORE NIGHT OF FROST POTENTIAL WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ONE MORE NIGHT OF FROST POTENTIAL WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR LESS OF A MARINE INFLUENCE. AT
THE SAME TIME, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
DECOUPLING. THIS WILL SEND LOWS INTO THE 30S AGAIN, PARTICULARLY
IN OUTLYING AND LOW LYING AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE,
AS THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE BEST. THE ADVISORY IS BASED
ON THE FORECAST LOWS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL WITH DEW
POINTS STARTING IN THE 40S AND THE MODERATING AIRMASS, WE MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP WITH JUST A HEAVY DEW EVEN IF TEMPERATURES
DROP TO THE MID 30S. RIDGETOPS MEANWHILE WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FOG MAY AFFECT MORE AREAS THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S) BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING AIRMASS MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, TRAILING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FORCING AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ARE LIMITED, WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS
BEING A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. MINIMAL
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
SOME, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID-70S BY FRIDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH, SOME EXTRA CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A FEW MODELS POINT TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKING DOWN
INTO ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER. OVERALL,
THERE IS STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST THAT COULD APPROACH THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRATOCU POSSIBLE. NAM AND RELATED GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH AT LEAST SOME HINT OF THIS IN OTHER GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE PUT SOME MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
IN THE TAF, WITH FOG MOST LIKELY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FOG IN
FOGGY BOTTOM WILL LIKELY REMAIN UPSTREAM OF DCA GIVEN A
WESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW.
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERLY QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON,
LIKELY BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. W/NW WINDS AOB
10 KTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH TUESDAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH, BUT OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING WESTERLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. SOME MARGINAL SCA GUSTS COULD FOLLOW, BUT OVERALL THIS
THREAT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND SUBSIDING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
WINDS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND COULD RESULT IN ONE LAST ROUND OF AT OR NEAR MINOR
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SHORELINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNAPOLIS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, BUT IT APPEARS OTHER LOCATIONS WILL FALL
SHORT. COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ005-006-008-
503>508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ037>040-050-
051-053-055-056-501-502-506-526-527.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT
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