869
FXUS61 KLWX 252336
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
736 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. OTHERWISE, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FROST ADVISORIES AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND KICKS OFF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.
- 2) DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST ADVISORIES AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING
TREND KICKS OFF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT YIELDING LESS OF A MARINE INFLUENCE DUE
TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ONE MORE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH A CLASSIC RIDGE-VALLEY SPLIT. GIVEN
THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHARP SURFACE INVERSION EXPECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS/RIDGES COMPARED TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND COLDER RURAL POCKETS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. FOR THAT REASON,
FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
CURRENTLY ACTIVE. THE GROWING SEASON HAS SINCE ENDED IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF WHERE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED (I.E ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE).
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM
BASED UPON CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. ENDED UP WITH A BLEND OF MOS,
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE, CONSHORT, AND THE REGIONAL CANADIAN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS POINTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE LACK OF A MARINE INFLUENCE AND SKC CONDITIONS AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISORY AREA AS WELL AS IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP LOCATIONS AND AREAS NEAR THE BAY WILL
SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WARMING TEMPERATURES KICK OFF THE NEW WORKWEEK GIVEN DOWNSLOPING LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
(LOW TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS). MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST ALLOWING A WARMER AIRMASS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
SOME, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID-70S BY FRIDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND STARTS
LIFTING BACK NORTH, SOME EXTRA CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A FEW MODELS POINT TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKING DOWN
INTO ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER. OVERALL,
THERE IS STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST THAT COULD APPROACH THE
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/2AM.
MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND OTHER HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGESTS AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS (FOG)
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOCATIONS DIRECTLY ALONG THE WATER. CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MEDIUM GIVEN THE MODIFYING AIRMASS IN THE LOW
LEVELS COMPARED TO THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS AROUND THE REGION. A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A DRY WARM FRONT LIFTING
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MEANDERING NEARBY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST WINDS MONDAY WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING IN NW FLOW.
MARGINAL SCA CHANNELING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT ONSHORE OR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND COULD RESULT IN ONE LAST ROUND OF AT OR NEAR MINOR
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SHORELINE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALEXANDRIA FOR THIS
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, BUT IT APPEARS OTHER LOCATIONS WILL FALL
SHORT. COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ005-006-008-
503>508.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ037>040-050-
051-053-055-056-501-502-506-526-527.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
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