238
FXUS61 KLWX 261427
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
- 2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN THAT BUILT OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS CONTINUES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THAT BEGAN ON SUNDAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT,
TIED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUT WITHOUT
MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING, THEN STALL AND
WEAKEN, OR PERHAPS LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT, THROUGH
MID WEEK. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIME AS A RESULT.
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS. THE WARMEST DAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS
TO EJECT ONE OR MORE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS WEEKEND.
THIS RESULTS IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO NOVEMBER. THERE IS A LOT
OF TIMING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHEN THESE WAVES APPROACH
OUR AREA, BUT SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
COULD RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR POTENTIAL.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM W TODAY, TO
NE TUESDAY, THEN SE TO SW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WHETHER IT'S LONG
ENOUGH IN DURATION TO JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (VERSUS A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT) IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME CHANNELING
IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL GRADIENTS LOOK WEAK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED, BUT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERALL. FURTHER MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH SENSITIVE
SHORELINE LIKE ANNAPOLIS CLOSER TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...DHOF/EST/SRT
MARINE...DHOF/EST/SRT
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