198
FXUS61 KLWX 261847
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT THIS EVENING AS SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF STANDING WAVE CIRRUS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. THE NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
- 2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
LARGE SCALE RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER. THESE MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT
ANY FURTHER FROST/FREEZE THREATS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, TIED
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITHOUT MUCH
FORCING OR MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ONLY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY, SO THERE WON'T BE MUCH OF A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO TODAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
EXTRA CLOUD COVER FROM A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AND SKIES CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
NOTABLY ABOVE NORMAL. THAT TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY
WHEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY START TO BECOME CLOUDIER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BEFORE HEADING EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
LIKELY BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN OVER A WEEK, ALTHOUGH OVERALL BREADTH AND TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE LOW-70S OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S, THIS RANGES SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECOND, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND
DIRECTION HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE TODAY BUT SHOULD SETTLE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT
AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FOG LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY
TONIGHT DUE TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME MIXING ALONG THE
FRONT.
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE ISN'T A CLEAR SIGNAL YET, SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT CHO AND MRB. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE COAST.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OCCURS SUNDAY WITH AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
WESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY SHIFT EASTERLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY BUT SHOULD TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW INCREASING WINDS AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST HAVE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUST
POTENTIAL (2-3 HOURS PERHAPS) AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME,
AS THE LATTER SCENARIO COULD BE HANDLED WITH A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY. SOME CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL GRADIENTS LOOK WEAK. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED, BUT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERALL. FURTHER MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH
SENSITIVE SHORELINE LIKE ANNAPOLIS CLOSER TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT
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