387
FXUS61 KLWX 262334
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
734 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- 2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DRIVE A WEAKENED COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT TO
THE SOUTH/EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SAME
FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SERIES OF
WIND SHIFTS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S AND LOW 70S THOUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY
AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY. THIS IS THANKS TO THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM AS WELL IN THE
MID 40S AND LOW 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
A DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO LOOSEN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUCKLE WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL ULTIMATELY BRING AN END TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HEADING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NOVEMBER. DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY BACK IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN IN EARLY NOVEMBER.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY START TO BECOME
CLOUDIER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEFORE HEADING EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS THE FIRST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MID- ATLANTIC IN OVER A WEEK, ALTHOUGH OVERALL BREADTH AND TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE LOW-70S OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S, THIS RANGES SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD, MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SECOND, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A DRY COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF BLUE RIDGE AND THOSE DIRECTLY ALONG THE WATER.
MILDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SUBTLE MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
YIELD THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN INCUMBENT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT CHO AND MRB GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE /INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE BANKING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ALTHOUGH HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME
CONSISTENCY IN RECENT CYCLES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS OCCURS SUNDAY
WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY MAY ONLY LAST 3 TO 4 HRS WHICH WILL LEAN TOWARD A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT COMPARED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME
MODELS SHOW INCREASING WINDS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT, BUT MOST HAVE A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUST POTENTIAL AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY. SOME CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH
OVERALL GRADIENTS LOOK WEAK. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THEN
NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED, BUT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERALL. FURTHER MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH SENSITIVE SHORELINE
LIKE ANNAPOLIS CLOSER TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/EST/SRT
AVIATION...EST/SRT
MARINE...EST/SRT
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