640
FXUS61 KLWX 271923
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
323 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- 2) ON-OFF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF OCTOBER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND A SERIES OF WIND SHIFTS WITH EACH OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD SEASONABLE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S THOUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. THIS IS IN PART TO THE POSITION OF THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL IN THE MID
40S AND LOW 50S.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS, FOG, OR EVEN A
LITTLE DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS EACH OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ON-OFF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH GENERALLY SUNNY & WARM CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THEN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD REACH INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE METROS AS THIS PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MIDWEST
AND THEN TRACK EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. A STEMMING COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON TOTAL SPREAD AND
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN
IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY & SUNDAY, THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.
AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY, A SECOND, POTENTIALLY
MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD FORM OVER THE PLAINS AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS WE GET INTO NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE
TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY AT CHO AND MRB GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE/INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE BANKING ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND UP THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, ALTHOUGH HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME CONSISTENCY IN RECENT CYCLES. ASIDE FROM EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, A PASSING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CLOUD DECKS THAT COULD BRING TEMPORARY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
TO TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS, FLOWING
NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY.
SOME CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL GRADIENTS
LOOK WEAK. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY PUSH SENSITIVE
SHORELINE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR
REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WOULD BE PLACES LIKE
ANNAPOLIS AND ALEXANDRIA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TIDE CYCLES
(WHICH ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/EST/SRT
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