341
FXUS61 KLWX 280014
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
814 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PRIMARY UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FORECASTS FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- 2) ON-OFF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF OCTOBER WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY. SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS IT DOES SO. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM TWO SOURCES. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
COVERAGE OF THOSE CLOUDS ARE UNCERTAIN, SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP
TOWARD DAWN IN ANY AREAS THAT ARE NOT SEEING CLOUD COVER.
CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR OR VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE STAGNANT LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. HOWEVER, CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR MORE QUICKLY BY THURSDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, AS MANY AREAS REACH THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS STRETCH AS
WELL, REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, BUT
COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE LOWER IN THE MID 60S, THOUGH STILL MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ON-OFF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THEN TRACK EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. A STEMMING COLD
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON TOTAL SPREAD
AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.
AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY, A SECOND, POTENTIALLY
MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD FORM OVER THE PLAINS AND MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS WE GET INTO NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE TAF FORECAST IS CHALLENGING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. EACH
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC/MOS SOURCE HAS DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
AS TO WHAT MIGHT OCCUR. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE AT
CHO, WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY BANK UP AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE. MRB WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT SPILLS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE.
WHILE THEY COULD SEE FOG ON THEIR OWN, INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT COOLING/SATURATION. THE EDGE OF ANY STRATUS
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO,
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN AREA OF FOG COULD DEVELOP ON
THE EAST SIDE OF ANY STRATUS SHIELD. MTN APPEARS TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CHANCES OF ANY RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR SUB-VFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
AGAIN, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DISPARATE. QUICKER CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TAKING OVER.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SHIFTING LIGHT WINDS AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
SUNDAY HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE OF THE
FORECAST.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY THURSDAY.
SOME CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, THOUGH OVERALL GRADIENTS
LOOK WEAK. WINDS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY PUSH SENSITIVE
SHORELINE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR
REACHING MINOR TIDAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS WOULD BE PLACES LIKE
ANNAPOLIS AND ALEXANDRIA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TIDE CYCLES
(WHICH ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/SRT
MARINE...KLW/SRT
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