709
FXUS64 KLZK 201730
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST TODAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
UPPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
AN UPPER LVL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS ALONG WITH A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LVL FEATURE OF THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS WITH EMBEDDED SWTS THAT WILL APPROACH THE CWA.
AT THE SFC, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE THREE-DAY PERIOD
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF
ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA FOR LATER INTO
NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
BRISK SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVECT WARMER TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
AROUND 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE
CONUS WITH A CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SWTS.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES OVERALL DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO NORMALS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PICK UP AGAIN
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 38 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 37 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 38 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 41 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 64 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 60 36 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 38 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 59 38 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 63 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 38 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 61 36 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 61 39 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...71
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