522
FXUS64 KMEG 201723
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH OVERNIGHT IS NOW EAST OF THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING AS MUCH THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LACK
OF CLOUDS AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER
60S. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED.
ARS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS FOR AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK FEATURES HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AN AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE TENNESSEE RIVER
THIS MORNING, SLOWLY ERODING EAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
6AM FOR AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER, STRETCHING SOUTH. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST, COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH. BY MIDDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S, WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 20S. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
ON THURSDAY, A REINFORCING FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION AND
LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE 50S AREAWIDE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED IN AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. ALAS, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE 70S ON MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. BOTH
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A STALLED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ITS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THE
BOTTOM LINE: EXPECT A WET HOLIDAY WEEK LEADING UP TO THURSDAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 25 KTS, ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 00Z, WHEN GUSTS DROP OUT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BRING BRIEF WIND SHEAR OF 35 KTS TO MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT TOMORROW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST UP TO 25 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALONG A CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AEH
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