735
FXUS62 KMFL 302306
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
606 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME COASTAL
CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE, HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI DADE COUNTIES
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACARS DATA FROM 1730Z DOES SHOW PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOW TOPPED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE, HOWEVER, TO
SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAYBE EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AS CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY OF 1000-1500 J/KG RISE AND
RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING. AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTH,
WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO SUBSIDE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER, IT SHOULD SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, SOME WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO TO MIDDLE 80S OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NORTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY, WITH MOST OF THE SE FL METRO REMAINING DRY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME RELIEF IN
TERMS OF TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND THEN LOW
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S/70S TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN 50S/60S FROM
MID WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOMING 10-15 KTS AFTER
16Z MONDAY. A BRIEF WESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT APF IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CAUTIONARY ENE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. 6-10 FT WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
MORNING SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY THIS EVENING. 3-5 FT WAVES THIS MORNING
IN THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HAZARDOUS WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS MORNING, WAVES OF 6-8 FT
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS LATER IN THE DAY, WAVES ARE
PROJECTED TO SUBSIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 83 73 84 / 20 10 10 20
WEST KENDALL 68 83 70 85 / 20 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 83 72 85 / 30 10 10 20
HOMESTEAD 71 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 81 73 84 / 30 20 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 81 73 85 / 40 20 10 30
PEMBROKE PINES 70 84 73 86 / 30 20 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 71 82 72 86 / 30 30 10 30
BOCA RATON 71 83 72 86 / 30 30 10 30
NAPLES 68 85 70 82 / 10 20 0 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
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