087
FXUS62 KMFL 020520
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
17Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY (COASTAL CONVERGENCE) ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN THUS FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY.
THE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OF THE COASTLINE AND BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUATION OF AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE FEEDING NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY PIVOTS TO THE SOUTH. RECENT ACARS DATA FROM KMIA AND KFLL
DEPICT AMPLE DRY AIR IN MOST OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SATURATED LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ASIDE
FROM A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, MAINLY OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE WRF, HRRR, AND RRFS
HAVE HAD A HARD TIME WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN, OFTEN UNDER DOING
THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE BLENDED THE
NAMNEST, SREF, AND NBM TO GET A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF HOW RAIN
CHANCES COULD PLAY OUT TODAY. ONCE THE CURRENT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE GULF COAST WHERE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF BREEZE.
ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE INCLUSION OF DENSE
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AS LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES,
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHES/AREAS OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION AND INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FL. GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND PRECIP
YESTERDAY, THE INCREASE IN PROBS SEEMS REASONABLE. INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SOUTH FL OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE METRO, AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SW FL. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS CLOSELY THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FL
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. LOCALLY, MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AGAIN
TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HREF SHOWING PWAT VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH PRECIP FOR
TODAY, SO GOING WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FOR THE ENTIRE EAST COAST METRO, THE BEST SIGNALS FOR PERSISTENT
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH AND NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTIES. QPF IS ANOTHER STRUGGLE TODAY, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POCKETS OF 0.5-1 INCH AMOUNTS, WHILE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AS THE COMPLEX SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE SE US LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SSE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SSW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH MILD LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S AROUND THE LAKE TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO.
WITH THE SSW FLOW IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, THE HUMIDITY REALLY RAMPS UP
WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE NW, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE, SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND, MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL
ALSO RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWER CLOUD DECK IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY
INLAND AND AWAY FROM TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TODAY SUSTAINING
AROUND 10-12 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS. VCSH MENTIONED FOR
KAPF, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE SITES SO NO
MENTION OF SHRA POTENTIAL AS OF YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
WINDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE HIGH RISK WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 70 82 67 / 10 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 85 67 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 86 69 83 66 / 10 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 68 82 66 / 10 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 68 81 66 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 69 82 66 / 10 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 68 84 66 / 10 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 86 68 82 65 / 20 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 86 68 82 65 / 20 0 0 0
NAPLES 82 68 80 60 / 20 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...REDMAN
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