178
FXUS62 KMFL 021120
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
620 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND
AND SW FLORIDA DUE TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT IN
THOSE AREAS AND ADEQUATE NEAR-SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS SHOULD
BE MODERATE ENOUGH TO AVOID FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE EAST
COAST METRO, ALTHOUGH WON'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE METRO. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
BETWEEN 50-70% CHANCE FOR FOG TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 0.5 MILES OR
LESS ACROSS INTERIOR AND SW FLORIDA WITH 10-20% CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST. THEREFORE, AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND SW
FLORIDA WITH INLAND GULF COAST AND FAR WESTERN EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FORECAST TO SEE PATCHY FOG.
AS FAR AS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ENSEMBLES
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL PREVENT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM PENETRATING
SOUTHWARDS AS IT SHIFTS EAST, ALTHOUGH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARDS AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADD A SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE, IT WILL BE A
RATHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT INHIBITING
INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO IT ARRIVING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, WHILE SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, THEY
WILL BE OF THE WEAK VARIETY AND OF LIMITED DURATION WHICH LEADS TO
NO CONCERNS. THE SHOWERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL TARGET
MOSTLY SW FLORIDA AS FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SW AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ON THE GULF SIDE RATHER THAN THE ATLANTIC
SIDE LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH SW FLORIDA FIRST BEFORE SE FLORIDA. AFTER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES, OVERALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AROUND 80 TO THE LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND CALM WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES,
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARISE AGAIN AS FLOW WOULD
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., WHICH IN RETURN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GUIDANCE ALSO
HINTS THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN THE
SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, MEANING THAT IT WILL HAVE A
GREATER CHANCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THIS BEING AT
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THIS
TROUGH'S AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION AND THUS WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS, NO MAJOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KAPF WITH LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TODAY SUSTAINING
AROUND 10-12 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS. VCSH MENTIONED FOR
KAPF, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE SITES SO NO
MENTION OF SHRA POTENTIAL AS OF YET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WINDS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS A RESULT OF THAT
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE
GULF AND 2-4 FT IN THE ATLANTIC.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 211 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL ASSIST IN
DECREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 69 83 66 / 10 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 86 66 84 63 / 10 20 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 86 68 83 66 / 10 20 0 0
HOMESTEAD 84 68 83 66 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 68 81 66 / 10 20 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 69 81 66 / 20 20 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 87 68 84 65 / 10 20 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 86 68 81 64 / 20 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 87 68 83 64 / 20 20 0 0
NAPLES 82 66 80 61 / 20 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
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