270
FXUS66 KMFR 190347
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2024
DISCUSSION
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS HINT AT QPF
OVER THE MARINE WATERS WHICH IS TYPICALLY AN INDICATOR OF A
DEEPENING MARINE LAYER LEADING TO PATCHY DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE MARINE WATERS, AND AT THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN CONTRAST, THE NBM IS
RUNNING "HOT", NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF BRINGING POPS IN TOO EARLY
WITH THE NEXT FRONT SUNDAY EVENING, BUT ALSO ON SATURDAY OVER THE
WATERS WHICH IS MORE OF A REFLECTION OF A DEEP MARINE LAYER
RESULTING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ACTS AS A "KICKER" PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND, BUT THAT WON'T BE
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...19/00Z TAFS
VFR WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES. THESE
CLOUDS WILL LOWER SOME TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST, PERHAPS TO MVFR AT
NORTH BEND. ALSO, PATCHY FOG COULD REDEVELOP IN SOME TYPICAL WEST
A SIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT PROBABLY NOT AT THE TERMINALS. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2024
RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. INCREASING WEST
TO NORTHWEST SWELL SATURDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED SEAS AREA WIDE
WITH STEEPENING WIND WAVES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. EVEN SO,
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY
BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STEEP WIND
WAVES AND WESTERLY SWELL, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS PEAKING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS. THEN, LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND
TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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