735
FXUS66 KMFR 191533
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
833 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2024
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. FOCUS
REMAINS ON AN INCOMING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EARLY
MORNING MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AT THIS POINT, THERE ARE
NO CONCERNS FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
SHORT- AND LONG-TERM FORECAST. -TAD
AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
INLAND, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IS MORE COMPLICATED AS BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT LEADING TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE CHANCES (40-50%) ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR KOTH. OTHERWISE, INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
-GUERRERO
MARINE (UPDATED 300 AM)
FOR TODAY, AN INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED
SEAS AREA WIDE WITH STEEPENING WIND WAVES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW, AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY
BRING ISOLATED HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STEEP
WIND WAVES AND WESTERLY SWELL, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY. THEN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
RETURN TUESDAY INTO MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 342 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2024/
SHORT TERM...
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THAT THEME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES END UP IN THE MID 70'S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND UPPER
60'S EAST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL
LINGER TO OUR SOUTH TODAY KEEPING THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY
AS FOR LATER TONIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 50% CHANCE
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST IN THE MARINE STRATUS.
USUALLY THIS IS A PRETTY LIGHT DRIZZLE MIXED WITH PLENTY OF FOG.
WE DECREASED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH CHANGED THE TERMINOLOGY TO DRIZZLE VERSUS RAIN
IN THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DESCEND ON
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHER CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY BASED ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES ON SHORE
BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST IS
100% AND BETWEEN 90 TO 70 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE CASCADES SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OBSERVING RAIN. THOSE
PROBABILITIES DECREASE THE FARTHER ONE MOVES SOUTH.
THE RAIN POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSING OREGON AND A COLD FRONT STALLING OUT AND
BECOMING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT. THEREFORE, ONE COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRAY SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
LONG TERM...
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OUT FAIRLY
QUIET FOR OUR AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SPREAD OUT INTO THE PACIFIC EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER OREGON BEFORE WE SEE SOME TYPE OF CYCLOGENESIS OUT
AROUND 140W AND 40N. MODELS HAVE THIS LOW ARRIVING SOME TIME
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VARYING INTENSITIES BASED ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONE LOOKS AT. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING SOME
MEMBERS(~5%) ARE COMPLETELY DRY AND ARE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION WILL BE A LOW WITH SOME STRENGTH WILL BRING MORE
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK AND TIME OF YEAR, SNOWFALL DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE IN OUR FUTURE AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 8000
FEET.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
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