251
FXUS66 KMFR 241114
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2024
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE
LENDING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEVELOPING STRATUS
ACROSS MANY VALLEY AREAS. EXPECT THE WESTERN VALLEYS TO BE LARGELY
SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS COME SUNRISE AND SOME LOCAL FOG AND
FREEZING FOG IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE SOME
OF THE COLDER READING EXPECTED MAY BE STIFLED BY STRATUS. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE IN SOME AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND TEMPS RISING TO
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL TODAY.
ON FRIDAY A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH SOME FAIRLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL
WATERS. GALE AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT OUR ZONES.
INLAND, SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE COASTAL REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE WIND INCREASE,
HOWEVER THESE SHOULD FALL SHORT OF HEADLINE CRITERIA. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES OF WHEN THE MAXIMUM MAY OCCUR AS WELL, BUT THE NBM
24-HR MAX WIND GUST MEAN SHOWS 40-45KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL TERRAIN PRIOR TO FRIDAY 11PM.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL PROGRESS AND BARGE
INTO THE PACNW THEREAFTER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE
STRONG FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH HITS THE SOUTH OREGON COAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CURRY COUNTY, WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS
THROUGH MID DAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA WITHIN THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE NBM ENSEMBLE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR TWO DAYS NOW IN ADVERTISING 70% CHANCE OF
NEARLY A FOOT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE 48HR PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ROUGHLY 4-8" AT PASS LEVELS. SO, STILL ANTICIPATING
A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CASCADES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
IN. WEATHER OUGHT TO SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
ANOTHER AMBITIOUS TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING IN COME LATER
WEDS WHICH WILL LIKELY GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW.
LATE WEEK, THE WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STAVISH
AVIATION...24/12Z TAFS
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S
LIGHT RAIN, THERE ARE AREAS OF VALLEY LIFR WITH FOG AND FREEZING
FOG, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE LIFR WILL ERODE THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PATCHY
VALLEY LIFR DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2024
THE MAIN
UPDATES THIS MORNING ARE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRECEDING A STRONG COLD FRONT, AND THEN WITH
THE FRONT, UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A COMBINATION GALE WARNING IN
THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH STEEP SEAS IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GALES ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ELSEWHERE AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE LOW, STEEP SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN OF HIGH AND STEEP SEAS EARLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE
NEXT WEEK. -DW
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023-024-026.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
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