523
FXUS66 KMFR 142247
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
247 PM PST TUE JAN 14 2025
DISCUSSION
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HAS TILTED
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW DIRECTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, EITHER DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,OR CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ONCE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY, QUIET, AND FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EACH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOR
MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER, BUT
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS CONSISTENT AS TO THE
WEST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS IN MORE PERSISTENT FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS MAY STAY COOLER WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE.
AIR STAGNATION WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AND VERY LITTLE MIXING. AN AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREA VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY, AND THIS MAY HELP BREAK THE INVERSIONS AT LEAST
BRIEFLY, OR AT LEAST LIFT THE FOG INTO STRATUS DECKS, BUT
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN LOCK
THE AREA DOWN UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE LONG TERM MODELS
AND CLIMATE OUTLOOKS OF A RETURN TO A WETTER (ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN
AT THIS POINT WOULD BE WETTER) PATTERN DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
JANUARY. -BPN
AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS
CLOUDS ARE BREAKING HERE IN MEDFORD AND IN
GRANTS PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE ON THE VERGE OF BREAKING IN
ROSEBURG. WHILE GP AND MEDFORD SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
VFR THIS EVENING, ROSEBURG'S CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SOME STAYING
POWER. THUS, ANY BREAK THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. EXPECT
LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO RETURN TO ALL OF THOSE AREAS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (REDEVELOPMENT AT MEDFORD IN THE 06-08Z TIME
FRAME). VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE COAST AND ELSEWHERE INLAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR BREAK OUT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY (ABOUT 20-22Z). THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE COAST AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SURGE IN STRATUS NEAR SHORE AT SOME POINT LATER
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTH BEND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INLAND
WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2025
NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP SEAS PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEYOND 10 NM
FROM SHORE AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF COOS BAY. CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS POSSIBLE UP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 230 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2025
LONG
PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL (6-9 FT/17 SECONDS) HAS MOVED IN TODAY
AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES ALONG
SOUTHERN OREGON BEACHES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RISK IS HIGHEST
FOR WEST FACING BEACHES AND ON INCOMING TIDES.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSSIBLY WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR
ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN
STRIKE OR PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR
FEET AND CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES
POSSIBLE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-
023>026-029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-
022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
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