450
FXUS66 KMFR 150629
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1029 PM PST TUE JAN 14 2025
AVIATION...15/06Z TAFS
LIFR HAS RETURNED TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY,
INCLUDING ROSEBURG, THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO LIFR PATCHES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING GRANTS PASS.
EXPECT LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO EXPAND AND RETURN TO WEST SIDE
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (WITH DEVELOPMENT AT
MEDFORD IN THE 07-08Z TIME FRAME). VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE COAST
AND ELSEWHERE INLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR BREAK OUT TIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON (ABOUT 20-22Z). THE ONLY DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP THE COAST AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A SURGE IN STRATUS NEAR SHORE AT
SOME POINT LATER WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTH BEND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL HAVE FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-SPILDE/DW
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, 2025
NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEYOND 10
NM FROM SHORE AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF COOS BAY. CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS POSSIBLE UP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS LOOK TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -SPILDE/DW
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 830 PM PST TUESDAY, JANUARY 14,
2025...ANOTHER EPISODE OF SNEAKER WAVES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A PEAK OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVES, NORTHWEST SWELL AT 11 SECONDS, AND A LONG
PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 21 SECONDS. THE PERIOD OF THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE WEEKEND, TO 16
SECONDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSSIBLY WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR
ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN
STRIKE OR PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR
FEET AND CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES
POSSIBLE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 247 PM PST TUE JAN 14 2025/
DISCUSSION...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HAS TILTED
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW DIRECTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, EITHER DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,OR CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE ONCE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
ALL OF THIS MEANS THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY, QUIET, AND FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EACH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOR
MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER, BUT
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS CONSISTENT AS TO THE
WEST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS IN MORE PERSISTENT FOG
OR LOW CLOUDS MAY STAY COOLER WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE.
AIR STAGNATION WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AND VERY LITTLE MIXING. AN AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREA VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY, AND THIS MAY HELP BREAK THE INVERSIONS AT LEAST
BRIEFLY, OR AT LEAST LIFT THE FOG INTO STRATUS DECKS, BUT
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN LOCK
THE AREA DOWN UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE LONG TERM MODELS
AND CLIMATE OUTLOOKS OF A RETURN TO A WETTER (ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN
AT THIS POINT WOULD BE WETTER) PATTERN AROUND DAY 10/NEXT FRIDAY,
AND CONTINUING DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-
023>026-029>031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
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