866
FXUS66 KMFR 152249
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 PM PST WED JAN 15 2025
DISCUSSION
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL BURNING OFF THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE ILLINOIS AND UMPQUA VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
QUICKLY AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40'S AND
LOWER 50'S THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WITH AN INVERSION AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP US RADIATE HEAT EFFICIENTLY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF
THE SAME LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH FREEZING FOG REMAINS MORE LIKELY IN THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS WITH DENSE FOG IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WE OPTED NOT
TO GO WITH ANOTHER DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AS THE
INVERSION SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG, ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
HOVERING AROUND 1/4 A MILE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE WITH WHAT WE'VE SEEN
MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE FOG CLEARING OUT
AROUND THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT
TREND LOWER IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS THE RIDGE IS NOT AS STRONG
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
DOWN THE OREGON COASTLINE WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER INTO
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 28 DEGREES IS FAIRLY HIGH(~80-100%)
FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE CASCADES, SUMMER LAKE AND LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH
DESERT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS. DEFINITELY NOT
EXTREMELY COLD, ALTHOUGH ONE COULD CONSIDER THESE LOWER
TEMPERATURES UNUSUALLY COLD EVEN FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
HOWEVER, WE'LL WARM UP TO FAIRLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AS
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE FOG.
OVERALL, PRETTY QUIET INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE
REGION DRY. WE LOOKED THROUGH ALL THE ECWMF MEMBERS AND THERE ARE
SOME(~10-15%) MEMBERS PREDICTING PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z THURSDAY THE
23RD AND 6Z FRIDAY THE 24TH. THE REST KEEP US PRETTY DARN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
-SMITH
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)
WESTSIDE VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINALS
EVENTUALLY GETTING INTO VFR (70-80%) FOR BOTH KRBG AND KMFR.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE (60%) FOR THESE TERMINALS TO SEE
FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15, 2025
WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING STEEP SEAS IN MOST OUTER
WATERS AND POSSIBLY AS CLOSE AS 5 NM FROM CAPE BLANCO AND CAPE
SEBASTIAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY AT 4 PM
THROUGH FRIDAY AT 7 AM. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FUTURE PRODUCTS WILL COVER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
-GUERRERO
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-
023>026-029>031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7
AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page