816
FXUS66 KMFR 162237
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 PM PST THU JAN 16 2025
DISCUSSION
STRATUS AND SOME FOG IS LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. ONE CAN SEE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DESCENDING ON THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY DECREASE
THE RISK OF EVEN MORE DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE MET AND MAV MOS BULLETINS ARE STILL PREDICTING FOG IN
THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT WHITE NORTH AND
BRING SOME RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WITH IT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS
SUGGEST THIS IS NOT AN EXTREME EVENT FOR OUR AREA, JUST A LITTLE
COLDER THAN USUAL. LOWS WITHIN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 20'S, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS EAST
OF THE CASCADES NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND CHEMULT OR SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE COLDEST PART OF OUR CWA JUST EAST OF CRATER LAKE. WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RECORDS TO FALL WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN.
TOWARDS THE END OF SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE A CUT OFF LOW
SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE FOG WILL REMAIN A WEATHER IMPACT AS WE COULD
SEE MORE DENSE FREEZING FOG IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS
CUT OFF LOW AND WHERE THE BRING IT ON SHORE. IN ANY CASE, THE POP
FORECAST IS LESS THAN 5% ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND NEXT WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NBM
IS PREDICTING A 15% CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOME INLAND VALLEYS.
ENSEMBLES DEFINITELY ARE TRENDING WETTER AROUND THE TAIL END OF
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT'S LOOKING LIKE A LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
INSTEAD OF A STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
-SMITH
AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
OUR REPEATING PATTERN OF WESTSIDE VALLEY FOG CONTINUES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS ON THE WESTSIDE (KOTH, KRBG, KMFR). WE WILL
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEDFORD (70%), BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (55%) FOR NORTH BEND AND ROSEBURG. FOG
AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (60%-70%) TO RETURN THIS EVENING
FOR THE WESTSIDE TERMINALS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING NORTH BEND
WHICH MAY STAY JUST ABOVE MVFR.
-GUERRERO
MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM THURSDAY, JANUARY 16, 2025
A THERMAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP
SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER WATERS SOUTH OF COOS BAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
FURTHER STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS OVER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH STEEP SEAS CONTINUING
SOUTH OF COOS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
ARE IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023>026-
029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
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