933
FXUS66 KMFR 170643
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1043 PM PST THU JAN 16 2025
..UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
PATCHY MVFR IS PRESENT FROM ALONG THE COAST
WITH LIFR/IFR IN SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM THE COQUILLE VALLEY INTO BOTH
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM
JOSEPHINE COUNTY INTO JACKSON COUNTY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG, GRANTS
PASS, AND MEDFORD. A WEAK FRONT WILL THICKEN AND EXPAND THE STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
NORTH BEND IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE IFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
16Z, BUT IFR IS EXPECTED IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE TYPICAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR FOR MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. -DW
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 818 PM PST THU JAN 16 2025/
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM THURSDAY, JANUARY 16, 2025...A THERMAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
BRINGING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEEP
SEAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF COOS BAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WITH STEEP SEAS CONTINUING SOUTH OF COOS BAY. WINDS WILL BE
ALMOST AS STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH THE REGION OF STRONGER WINDS
SHIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE.
A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR OUTER PORTION OF THE INNER WATERS, AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE ARAGO ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. -DW
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 100 PM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 16,
2025...ANOTHER EPISODE OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
NORTHERLY WIND WAVES, NORTHWEST SWELL AT 11 SECONDS, AND A LONG
PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND 21 SECONDS. THE RISK IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIMINISHING SWELL PERIOD AND LESS
CHAOTIC SEA STATE.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSSIBLY WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR
ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN
STRIKE OR PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR
FEET AND CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES
POSSIBLE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM PST THU JAN 16 2025/
DISCUSSION...
STRATUS AND SOME FOG IS LINGERING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. ONE CAN SEE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DESCENDING ON THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY DECREASE
THE RISK OF EVEN MORE DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE MET AND MAV MOS BULLETINS ARE STILL PREDICTING FOG IN
THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT WHITE NORTH AND
BRING SOME RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WITH IT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS
SUGGEST THIS IS NOT AN EXTREME EVENT FOR OUR AREA, JUST A LITTLE
COLDER THAN USUAL. LOWS WITHIN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 20'S, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS EAST
OF THE CASCADES NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND CHEMULT OR SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE COLDEST PART OF OUR CWA JUST EAST OF CRATER LAKE. WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RECORDS TO FALL WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN.
TOWARDS THE END OF SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE A CUT OFF LOW
SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE FOG WILL REMAIN A WEATHER IMPACT AS WE COULD
SEE MORE DENSE FREEZING FOG IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS
CUT OFF LOW AND WHERE THE BRING IT ON SHORE. IN ANY CASE, THE POP
FORECAST IS LESS THAN 5% ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND NEXT WEEK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NBM
IS PREDICTING A 15% CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SOME INLAND VALLEYS.
ENSEMBLES DEFINITELY ARE TRENDING WETTER AROUND THE TAIL END OF
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT'S LOOKING LIKE A LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
INSTEAD OF A STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023>026-
029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
PZZ356-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page