774
FXUS66 KMFR 171140
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PST FRI JAN 17 2025
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT, FOG
AND LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN MANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
AND A NOT INSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS HAS BANKED UP ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE. THESE AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING, AND MAY BE
DENSE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE, BEFORE CLEARING OUT
AND BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT WHITE NORTH
AND BROUGHT SOME RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WITH IT. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WILL TREND LOWER BY A
FEW DEGREES, MAKING THE DAILY LOWS JUST A LITTLE COLDER THAN
USUAL. LOWS WITHIN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20'S, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS EAST OF THE
CASCADES NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND CHEMULT OR SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
COLDEST PART OF OUR CWA JUST EAST OF CRATER LAKE. WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RECORDS TO FALL WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN.
TOWARDS THE END OF SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE A CUT OFF
LOW SETTLE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. THE FOG WILL REMAIN A WEATHER IMPACT AS WE
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FREEZING FOG IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEN DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE
THIS CUT OFF LOW AND WHERE THE BRING IT ON SHORE. IN ANY CASE,
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEXT
TO ZERO.
WE MAY FINALLY SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, RIGHT AT THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AND PATTERNS ACROSS ALL
ENSEMBLE SUITES, SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO IS VERY
LOW, BUT THE GENERAL TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN OVER OUR AREA AT THAT TIME. -SMITH/BPN
AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
PATCHY MVFR IS PRESENT FROM ALONG THE COAST
WITH LIFR/IFR IN SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM THE COQUILLE VALLEY INTO BOTH
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM
JOSEPHINE COUNTY INTO JACKSON COUNTY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG, GRANTS
PASS, AND MEDFORD. A WEAK FRONT WILL THICKEN AND EXPAND THE STRATUS
LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
NORTH BEND IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE IFR OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
16Z, BUT IFR IS EXPECTED IN OTHER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE TYPICAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR FOR MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM FRIDAY, JANUARY 17, 2025
A THERMAL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER AREA WATERS, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE
BUILDING STEEP SEAS IN WATERS SOUTH OF COOS BAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VERY STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE, WHILE STEEP SEAS CONTINUE IN ALL OTHER
WATERS SOUTH OF COOS BAY. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS EASE BUT STEEP SEAS CONTINUE IN OUTER
WATERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK TO IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER IS APPEARING
IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THAT
WEATHER COULD DEVELOP. -TAD
BEACH HAZARDS
UPDATED 100 PM PST THURSDAY, JANUARY 16,
2025...ANOTHER EPISODE OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
NORTHERLY WIND WAVES, NORTHWEST SWELL AT 11 SECONDS, AND A LONG
PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND 21 SECONDS. THE RISK IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIMINISHING SWELL PERIOD AND LESS
CHAOTIC SEA STATE.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSSIBLY WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR
ROCK OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN
STRIKE OR PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR
FEET AND CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES
POSSIBLE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ021-023>026-
029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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