232
FXUS66 KMFR 190848
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1248 AM PST SUN JAN 19 2025
DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION, MARINE AND BEACH HAZARDS SECTIONS
AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SETTLING INTO THE
WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ROSEBURG,
MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF LIFR DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 1235 AM SUNDAY, JANUARY 19, 2025
WE'VE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD AND BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE SINCE NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THOSE AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEYOND ABOUT 15
NM FROM SHORE IN THE OUTER WATERS (FROM AROUND NESIKA BEACH
SOUTHWARD). THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 1240 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 19, 2025
LONG PERIOD (17-19 SECONDS) WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES TO SOUTHERN OREGON
BEACHES TODAY. THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES CAN CAUSE WAVES TO RUN UP
MUCH HIGHER ON THE BEACH THAN USUAL WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ON
INCOMING TIDES. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN
MODERATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LOWERING SWELL PERIOD (TO 14-15
SECONDS) AND LESS CHAOTIC SEA STATE. -SPILDE
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR ROCK
OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN STRIKE OR
PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR FEET AND
CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES POSSIBLE.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP
YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 909 PM PST SAT JAN 18 2025/
UPDATE...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR AND BELOW
FREEZING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
INCLUDES BANDON, CHARLESTON, COOS BAY, REEDSPORT AND NEARBY
COMMUNITIES. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE NPWMFR FOR DETAILS. CONTINUED COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM PST SAT JAN 18 2025/
DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS IN PREVIOUS EVENINGS AND NIGHTS, LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY TO RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SHALLOW
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
WITH THE STRONG INVERSIONS IN PLACE, AND WITH NO ACTIVE WEATHER TO
BREAK THEM, STAGNATE AIR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN AREA
VALLEYS. AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. IT'S POSSIBLE
THE INVERSION AND STAGNANT AIR COULD GET MIXED OUT BRIEFLY TUESDAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH.
MEANWHILE A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH OREGON COAST WILL RESULT
IN A DRY EAST FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID SLOPES AND
RIDGES, AND NEAR BROOKINGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR
AND AT THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. ALSO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ALONG THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
BRING BREEZY EAST WINDS NEAR AND AT THE RIDGES.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST, AND WITH THE VERY BROAD,
DEEP TROUGH COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONTINENT, WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTH FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY PASS OVERHEAD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THEY TRAVERSE THIS FLOW, BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NO DISCERNIBLE EFFECTS AT THE SURFACE. IN OTHER WORDS, THE
DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THERE'S SOME EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARDS A SLIGHT DISRUPTION IN THE
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT TWO DIFFERENT PICTURES WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION.
DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE INDIVIDUAL ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE IF
ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST MEMBERS
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. THE INDIVIDUAL GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW NO PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, WITH SOME MEMBERS
SHOWING LIMITED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
TAKING THE NBM AT FACE VALUE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COVERAGE AREA IS OVERDONE AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE DISRUPTION IN
THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE BRIEF WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK
OVER THE PAC NW THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO MOST OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THEY DO SHOW SUGGEST A PATTERN CHANGE COULD BE IN
THE WORKS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-
023>026-029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
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