664
FXUS66 KMFR 191302
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
502 AM PST SUN JAN 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGING ALOFT, GENERAL EAST FLOW,
AND STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. STAGNATE AIR CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE IN ALL AREA VALLEYS, AND WITH COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES LEADING TO INCREASED NEEDS FOR HEATING, DETERIORATING
AIR QUALITY WILL BE A CONCERN. IT'S POSSIBLE THE INVERSION AND
STAGNANT AIR COULD GET MIXED OUT BRIEFLY TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST, AND WITH THE VERY BROAD,
DEEP TROUGH COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONTINENT, WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTH FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY PASS OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THEY TRAVERSE THIS FLOW, BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO DISCERNIBLE EFFECTS AT THE SURFACE. IN OTHER
WORDS, THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
WHILE THE VALLEYS STAY RELATIVELY COLD, THE DRY EAST FLOW WILL
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, AND
NEAR BROOKINGS, WHERE A CHETCO EFFECT WILL CONTINUE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR AND AT THE
RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THERE'S SOME EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARDS A SLIGHT DISRUPTION IN THE
PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT OR PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ECMWF,
AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING DRIER, BUT THE NBM STUBBORNLY STAYS
WET. HAVE SEEN THIS TREND ENOUGH THIS SEASON TO KNOW THAT THE
DETERMINISTIC ARE ON TO SOMETHING, AND THE NBM WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO RESPOND. HAVE PUSHED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOWER FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL, AND
THE ONLY NOTABLE EFFECT BEING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A TEMPORARY
PERIOD OF GOOD MIXING AND BROKEN INVERSIONS.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE DISRUPTION IN
THE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE BRIEF WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK
OVER THE PAC NW THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO MOST OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THEY DO SHOW SUGGEST A PATTERN CHANGE COULD BE IN
THE WORKS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED. -BPN
AVIATION...19/12Z TAFS
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ENTRENCHED IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT ROSEBURG, MEDFORD AND
GRANTS PASS THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
THEREAFTER. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF LIFR DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 1235 AM SUNDAY, JANUARY 19, 2025
WE'VE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD AND BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE SINCE NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THOSE AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEYOND ABOUT 15
NM FROM SHORE IN THE OUTER WATERS (FROM AROUND NESIKA BEACH
SOUTHWARD). THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 1240 AM PST SUNDAY, JANUARY 19, 2025
LONG PERIOD (17-19 SECONDS) WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES TO SOUTHERN OREGON
BEACHES TODAY. THESE LONG PERIOD WAVES CAN CAUSE WAVES TO RUN UP
MUCH HIGHER ON THE BEACH THAN USUAL WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ON
INCOMING TIDES. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN
MODERATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LOWERING SWELL PERIOD (TO 14-15
SECONDS) AND LESS CHAOTIC SEA STATE. -SPILDE
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A TYPE OF WAVE THAT CAN RUN HIGHER UP THE BEACH
THAN A NORMAL WAVE. SNEAKER WAVES CAN WASH OVER PATHWAYS OR ROCK
OUTCROPPINGS. THEY CAN LIFT AND CARRY LOGS, WHICH CAN THEN STRIKE OR
PIN BEACHGOERS. SNEAKER WAVES CAN KNOCK A PERSON OFF THEIR FEET AND
CARRY THEM OUT TO DEEPER WATERS, WHERE HYPOTHERMIA BECOMES POSSIBLE.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN POSE A LETHAL THREAT. AS THESE CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN, VISIBILITY WILL BE LIMITED. ALWAYS KEEP
YOUR EYES ON THE SEA AND USE EXTRA CAUTION.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-
023>026-029>031.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ376.
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