766
FXUS66 KMFR 160456
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS
AVIATION...16/06Z TAFS
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE
UNIFORM STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL STEADILY RISE
TO 4000-5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED AREAS WITH MORE PERSISTENT LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS IT
MOVES OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. WHILE
ROSEBURG DOES NOT HAVE SHEAR NOTED IN THE TAF FORECAST, SHEAR IS
PRESENT AROUND THE UMPQUA VALLEY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIMEFRAME AS
NORTH BEND. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS GENERALLY ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA
BY MORNING, WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OVER LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES, WHERE MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.
-TAD/BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2025
AN
INCOMING FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, VERY STEEP SEAS,
AND MARINE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE AT TIMES, BUT WIDESPREAD GALES ARE NOT FORECAST FOR
AREA WATERS.
WINDS EASE ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BUILD IN AREA WATERS AND SUSTAIN STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 14 TO 16 FEET AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY, WITH SEAS IMPROVING INTO TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED. LONG-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS GENERALLY STAYING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
STRENGTH RIGHT NOW. -TAD/BPN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025/
DISCUSSION...RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT
ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. HOWEVER, NONE OF
THAT HAS REACHED THE GROUND AS OF YET. EVEN SO, COULD NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
INLAND, AND PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING,
THEN MOVING INLAND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 4500 FEET. UPPER TROUGHING WITH A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
CASCADES. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE A RELATIVE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FROM ABOUT MID MORNING
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
THE CONCERN FOR PERSISTENT SNOW IN THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD OROGRAPHICS ALONG THE
CASCADES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SNOWFALL RATES COULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A GOOD CHANCE (70-90%) FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVING FORCE FOR KEEPING THE WINTER STORM WARNING OUT. UNDER
DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES, STORM TOTAL SNOW IS OVER A LONG DURATION
AND THIS IN ITSELF WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM
WARNING, BUT SNOWFALL RATES WILL.
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA MONDAY WILL
KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING, WITH MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE OROGRAPHIC
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE CASCADES, AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADES COULD BE MITIGATED DURING THE
DAY MONDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PUT A CAP ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AND MOST WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CASCADES.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. THIS WON'T LAST LONG WITH
STRONGER EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARDS WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE AREA (CASCADES WEST) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE RISE TO AROUND 5500 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NEAR 6000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING IN THE MORNING, THEN REBOUNDING SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON PRECIP INTENSITY SINCE WE'LL BE IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT.
THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS A QUIETER PATTERN THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLUSTERS ARE ALL POINTING TOWARDS UPPER RIDGING
WITH THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA, AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TOWARDS DRY WEATHER WITH THE STORM
TRACK STAYING NORTH, THEN SHIFTING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. -PETRUCELLI
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2025...AN
INCOMING FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MARINE SHOWERS
TO AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND-BUILT VERY STEEP SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR-
GALE SPEEDS, BUT WIDESPREAD GALES ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AREA WATERS.
WINDS EASE ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BUILD IN AREA WATERS AND SUSTAIN STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 14 TO 16 FEET AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY, WITH SEAS IMPROVING INTO TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED. LONG-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS GENERALLY STAYING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
STRENGTH RIGHT NOW. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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