302
FXUS66 KMFR 161142
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT IS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD INLAND THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY, A LOW
GRADUALLY NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RELATIVE BREAK IN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
WITH THIS SHOWERY PATTERN AND STRONG, MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW, THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR PERSISTENT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES INDICATES THE MAIN BAND
OF PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
AND SUPPORT FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE CASCADES AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES
INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HIGHEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE (60-80%) FOR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR
OVER HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140
AND NEAR THE CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) OF 6 TO 18 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR CRATER LAKE
AND OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WARNING (WSWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH A LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING. HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORED ON UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 4000-5000 FEET TODAY, LOWERING TO 3500-4000 FEET TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS (MAINLY LIGHT) ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ALONG THE COAST AND IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS (WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH) ARE
ALSO LIKELY TODAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY THIS
MORNING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT SHOWERS
TO DIMINISH. THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...16/12Z TAFS
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS RELATIVELY WARM MOIST AIR PUSHES IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY HINTS AT
WIDESPREAD 2000 FOOT CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AROUND THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 3 MILES, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST NEAR THE HEAVIER RAIN.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN AT 7000 TO 9000
FEET COULD KICK OFF SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURING IS CLOSER TO 5%
THIS AFTERNOON.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2025
HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH VERY STEEP SEAS OBSERVED
NEAR BUOY 229 JUST OFF OF REEDSPORT. WINDS EASE LATER THIS MORNING,
BUT LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE WATERS AND SUSTAIN
STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET AT
14 TO 15 SECONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY, WITH SEAS
IMPROVING INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS THURSDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
HIGH AND STEEP SEAS.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page