387
FXUS66 KMFR 161758
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
958 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE FREEZING LEVEL AT
5400 FEET WHICH PUTS THE SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL BUMP IN SNOW LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON, MEANING THEY WILL RISE SOME THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN
THEY WILL VARY SOME DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS.
THEREFORE SHOWERS THAT ARE HEAVIER COULD RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS
CLOSER TO 4500 FEET. RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND MOST ARE CENTERED FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS AND MORE ISOLATED EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH LITTLE TO
NOTHING IN SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE CASCADES AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, SUPPORTING ONGOING PRECIPITATION. VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON. MOST ACTIVITY IS OVER COASTAL RANGES, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT 4500
TO 5000 FEET, LIMITING SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN
SHOWERS CAN LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND BOTH RAN AND SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BRING AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND OBSCURED TERRAIN.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THE PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN AT 7000 TO 9000
FEET COULD KICK OFF SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURING IS CLOSER TO 5%
THIS AFTERNOON. -SMITH/TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 820 AM PST SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2025
HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH VERY STEEP SEAS
OBSERVED NEAR BUOY 229 JUST OFF OF REEDSPORT. WINDS EASE LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD IN THE
WATERS AND SUSTAIN STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS
OF 12 TO 15 FEET AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY, WITH SEAS IMPROVING INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS THURSDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
HIGH AND STEEP SEAS.
-SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page