805
FXUS66 KMFR 171151
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
351 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
DISCUSSION
WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH THE CASCADES. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MOST STEADY SNOW IS
FOUND FROM PROSPECT AND NORTHWARD.
THE CONDITIONS IN THE CASCADES STILL FAVOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING
THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AT 4 PM. BETWEEN 4 PM-10 PM
THERE COULD STILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THAT BRING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES
ALONG THE CASCADES, INCLUDING NEAR CRATER LAKE. THE WARNING WILL
STILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM, BUT THE SNOW WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING IMPACTS LATER TODAY.
THIS RAIN AND SNOW WILL FINISH UP WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN TUESDAY,
BUT A RETURN TO RAIN AND SNOW WILL COME BACK BY THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL OVERALL BE
BETWEEN 3,500 TO 4,500 FEET AND THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE
SISKIYOUS, MARBLES AND CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR WEST SIDE
VALLEY COULD REACH 0.25"-0.50", WITH AREAS ON THE COAST SEEING 0.50"-
1.00".
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS
WHICH WILL BE DETAILED IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION, BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS IN CURRY
COUNTY HAVE A 40-60% PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE WINDS NEARING 25
MPH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER, RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND BRING QUIET CONDITIONS AND MILD
WEATHER.
AVIATION...17/12Z TAFS
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG BUILD INTO THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT. -SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2025
SEAS WILL
TRANSITION TO SWELL DOMINATED, AND REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY FOR MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE AT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OTHER WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO GALE FORCE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. THEREFORE, THE GALE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK, ANOTHER FRONT IS DUE TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-
028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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