280
FXUS66 KMFR 171654
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS SHOWING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CASCADES WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
PATTERN WE ARE IN WITH A MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. A LOOK AT
SOME OF THE WEBCAMS SHOW SNOW COVERED ROADS AROUND DIAMOND LAKE,
CRATER LAKE PARK ENTRANCE, LAKE OF THE WOODS AND PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 97 NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS, ALTHOUGH SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 97
IS PROBABLY AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES ALONG HIGHWAY 97 ARE
NEAR FREEZING AND AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THE
ROADS SHOULD BECOME WET AS THEY WARM UP.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOW THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE MEASURING
1.37 INCHES AND AGNESS MEASURING ALMOST AN INCH (0.97 OF AN INCH).
ALONG THE CASCADES MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RANGED BETWEEN 0.40
AND 0.70 OF AN INCH.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PERSISTENT ALONG THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE CASCADES, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
KEPT IN CHECK SOME DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING ROADS TO WARM
UP SOME.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A
CONTINUES MOIST ONSHORE FLOW, THEN WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY COULD
END UP DRY. MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA, BUT
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND IT MAY NOT BE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WE'LL GET
PRECIPITATION. WE'LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...17/12Z TAFS
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG BUILD INTO THE ROGUE AND
UMPQUA VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT. -SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST MONDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2025
SEAS WILL
TRANSITION TO SWELL DOMINATED, AND REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE AT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OTHER
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. THEREFORE, THE GALE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE WEEK, ANOTHER FRONT IS DUE TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-
028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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