886
FXUS66 KMFR 181142
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
DISCUSSION
RIDGING IS MAKING ITS WAY IN TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH AN INCOMING WARM FRONT IS LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE OR WEST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION DOES TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, IT WOULD FOCUS ON COOS, DOUGLAS AND WESTERN
KLAMATH COUNTIES INTO THE CASCADES.
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL OVERALL BE BETWEEN 3,500 TO 4,500 FEET AND THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVIEST IN THE SISKIYOUS, MARBLES AND CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD REACH
0.25"-0.50", WITH AREAS ON THE COAST SEEING 0.50"-1.00". HOWEVER,
VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON NEAR BROOKINGS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR 1.00"-1.50".
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS IN
CURRY COUNTY HAVE A 30-50% PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE WINDS
NEARING 25 MPH INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS SHOWS THAT MAX GUSTS WOULD REACH AROUND 40 MPH. THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE STILL TOO LOW TO GO FOR A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND
WARNING ALONG THE COAST, SO WILL CONTINUE TRACKING THIS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD ALSO BE IN FOR STRONGER WINDS.
AFTER, THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND RIDGING WILL
TAKE CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND BRING QUIET
CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS 60S FOR WEST SIDE LOCATIONS WITH 40S EAST. STARTING FRIDAY
THERE IS A 40-60% PROBABILITY TO SEE 60 DEGREES IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY.
AVIATION...18/06Z TAFS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, BUT
LINGERS ALONG THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AROUND 10-12Z FOR VALLEYS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. ANY LOWER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING, WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. /BR-Y
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2025
STEEP, WEST
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE LATER TODAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN LATER
TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES 130
W LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALES TO ALL THE WATERS
ALONG WITH VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND COULD
MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SEAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 20 FEET DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SO
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE LIKELY WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. /BR-Y/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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