914
FXUS66 KMFR 181702
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT. CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THIS.
OUR NEXT CONCERN COMES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE'S INCREASING EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARDS HIGH WINDS AT THE
COAST FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INSIDE OF 130W
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO THE UPPER
PATTERN AT 500MB SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
A DEEPENING LOW. WE'LL LIKELY HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
SOUTH COAST, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE HEADLANDS AND
EXPOSED AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 101.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...18/12Z TAFS
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED LIFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS FOG HAS BUILT INTO THE VALLEYS. THERE
ARE OTHER POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE CASCADES AS SOME
LOWER TO MID LEVEL STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT LOW IS
APPROACHING AND WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY MORE MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE CASCADES
AND ALONG THE COAST. EVEN WITH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LOOK FOR
MORE VFR CEILINGS TODAY FARTHER INLAND WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE
COAST.
-SMITH
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2025
STEEP, WEST
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES 130 W LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALES TO ALL THE WATERS ALONG
WITH VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 50 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND COULD MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 20 FEET DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, SO HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE LIKELY WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. /BR-Y/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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