320
FXUS66 KMFR 181810
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1010 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT. CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THIS.
OUR NEXT CONCERN COMES LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE'S INCREASING EVIDENCE POINTING TOWARDS HIGH WINDS AT THE
COAST FOR ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INSIDE OF 130W
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO THE UPPER
PATTERN AT 500MB SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
A DEEPENING LOW. WE'LL LIKELY HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
SOUTH COAST, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE HEADLANDS AND
EXPOSED AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 101.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADES IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...18/18Z TAFS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KLAMATH FALLS, VFR LEVELS UNDER HIGH CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. A WARM FRONT
MOVING OVER THE AREA IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES
THAT MAY LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES, BUT SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS OF 5000 FEET OR HIGHER WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST AREAS, WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED
OVER THE CASCADES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO BE PRESENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER LAND. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHEAR DIRECTLY OVER
MEDFORD, SHEAR OVER THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS FOLLOWS THE SAME
TIMING AS ROSEBURG. SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS TO DISPERSE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2025
STEEP, WEST
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES 130 W LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALES TO ALL THE WATERS ALONG
WITH VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 50 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND COULD MAINTAIN GALES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 20 FEET DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, SO HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE LIKELY WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 13
SECONDS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. /BR-Y/SMITH
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
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