959
FXUS66 KMFR 191050
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
DISCUSSION
AS OF THIS WRITING, A COLD FRONT LIES LINED UP
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND PASS OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. FOR MOST AREAS,
SHOWERY, LIGHT, WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADY
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN SHOWERS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT PASSES AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL,
EXPECT AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST, THE COASTAL RANGES, AND ALONG THE CASCADES, WITH A TENTH TO
A QUARTER INCH FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE. MEANWHILE, SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 5000 FEET AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THEN LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
AND MOSTLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT DUE TO THE HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY INCH-PER-HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES. MORE DETAILS ON THE WARNING CAN BE FOUND AT PDXWSWMFR.
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST, AND THE
SHASTA AND SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS, AND WINDS NO LONGER LOOK TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HOWEVER, WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE, AS GUSTS
COULD STILL REACH CRITERIA IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. DETAILS ON WINDS
CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR.
AS MENTIONED, POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD, THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES
OVER CONTROL OF THE AREA THURSDAY, PUSHING THE PREFERRED STORM
TRACK TO THE NORTH, AND PRODUCING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER UNTIL ROUGHLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT, ALLOWING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
GLANCE THE ALONG THE COAST, AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AS A WEAK
SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EACH BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE DETAILS ON EACH WAVE REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR ON THE LIGHTER THAN AVERAGE SIDE,
WITH SNOW LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS TO
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF CRATER LAKE.
-BPN
AVIATION...19/06Z TAFS
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
CASCADES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST AROUND 12Z EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT WITH LOCAL OBSCURATION OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT EACH OF THE
TERMINALS WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT AT 2000 FT AGL IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, FROM AROUND 10Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND MVFR WILL BE MOST COMMON. BUT,
IFR AND VFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO TAPER OFF DURING WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MVFR PERSISTING. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2025
STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE GUSTS COULD
REACH STORM FORCE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR BEING
FROM PORT ORFORD NORTHWARD AND WITHIN 30 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS WILL
EASE LATER THIS MORNING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY AS A BUILDING WEST SWELL (10-12 FT AT 14-15 SECONDS) MOVES
INTO THE WATERS AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /BR-Y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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