291
FXUS66 KMFR 192223
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
223 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING, THEN TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER
SHOWERS LIKELY THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH 4 PM PST TODAY
FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME COLD
MORNINGS, AREAS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN VALLEYS
AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATE FRIDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET, SO ONLY
HIGHER PEAKS AND AREAS NEAR CRATER LAKE MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT, AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A COUPLE FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ON SATURDAY FROM NEAR 6000
FEET TO 7000-8000 FEET, THEN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY, LOWERING
TO 5000-6000 FEET LATE MONDAY. SO, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE FRONTS ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL FALL AS RAIN,
WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY WINDS FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
MID NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES FAVOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND STABLE WEATHER.
AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE AS AN ACTIVE
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. WHILE MOST CEILINGS ARE JUST ABOVE VFR
LEVELS, THERE ARE AREAS OF LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS ALONG THE COAST
AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY'S TO NORTH BEND, ROSEBURG, AND MEDFORD.
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, THEN START DECREASING OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD BE ABSENT MY THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LOW-LYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2025
WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING FOR AREA WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED STEEP SEAS
ARE ONGOING, SO AN EXISTING HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AT 1 AM.
BELOW ADVISORY SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ON FRIDAY, SWELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL REBUILD
STEEP SEAS IN ALL AREA WATERS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED
AREAS OF VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES. STEEP SEAS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. -TAD
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ027-
028.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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