054
FXUS66 KMFR 200453
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
..UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
AVIATION...20/06Z TAFS
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR WILL PERSIST AT THE
COAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MEANTIME, CONDITIONS ARE MIXED INLAND
WITH A MAJORITY OF VFR, BUT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AREAS OF
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXPAND OVER LOW-LYING AREAS. BUT, PATCHES
OF IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY, INCLUDING ROSEBURG IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
STABILIZING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MAINLY WEST
SIDE VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. -DW
MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2025
WINDS
AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT TILL 1 AM AS A DOMINANT WEST
SWELL AT 14 SECONDS REMAINS STEEP.
IMPROVED, BELOW ADVISORY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT. STEEP
SWELL DOMINATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY WITH SOUTH GALES
POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF
SOUTH GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP
SEAS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
-DW
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 223 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING, THEN TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER
SHOWERS LIKELY THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH 4 PM PST TODAY
FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME COLD
MORNINGS, AREAS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN VALLEYS
AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATE FRIDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, AROUND 5500 TO 6500 FEET, SO ONLY
HIGHER PEAKS AND AREAS NEAR CRATER LAKE MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT, AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A COUPLE FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ON SATURDAY FROM NEAR 6000
FEET TO 7000-8000 FEET, THEN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY, LOWERING
TO 5000-6000 FEET LATE MONDAY. SO, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THESE FRONTS ON THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL FALL AS RAIN,
WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AS THESE FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY WINDS FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.
MID NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES FAVOR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETURNING TO
THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND STABLE WEATHER.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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