710
FXUS66 KMFR 280348
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON WEST SIDE WITH THE
MOST STEADY SHOWERS IN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. THE LATEST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AS MOST OBSERVATION SITES HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH OR UNDER. SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 3,000 COULD STILL SEE A FEW
GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALONG THE
COAST FROM CURRY COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY WITH HIGH WIND
WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS AT THE COAST
ARE STILL REPORTING GUSTS NEAR 35-50 MPH. THE SHASTA VALLEY HAS
STARTED TO WEAKEN WITH REPORTS NEAR 30-40 MPH, SO IT WILL MAINLY BE
THE COASTAL HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WILL NEED TO BE ANALYZED IN CASE
IT NEEDS AN EXTENSION. WINDS WILL EASE MORE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
AND THE WIND PRODUCTS FOR EAST SIDE WILL EXPIRE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION IS ON TRACK WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE CASCADES INCLUDING CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND LAKE AND
THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. PLEASE SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR
MORE INFORMATION. THE RAINFALL WILL STILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SIMILAR
AREAS TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW, AND THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. -HERMANSEN
AVIATION
MARINE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 431 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025/
.NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
CEILINGS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE WILL BE
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY
CAUSE FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AS A RESULT. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CALM DOWN LATER TONIGHT, BUT BREEZY WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DECOUPLE LATER TONIGHT.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025/
DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AS
THE LARGE, STRONG LOW SPINS JUST OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW POWER
OUTAGES REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE, EXPANDING
UPON THE SMALLER ADVISORY ISSUED JUST FOR THE SOUTHERN ROGUE
VALLEY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COAST AND THE SHASTA
VALLEY, AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE (ALONG WITH A
WIND ADVISORY) THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DETAILS ON THESE
CAN BE FOUND AT PDXNPWMFR. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS TAPER OFF
TONIGHT, GUSTY WINDS AND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SNOW REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR AREAS ABOVE 4500 FEET IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. DETAILS ON THESE CAN BE FOUND AT
PDXWSWMFR.
THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST TODAY, THEN SPIN
OFF TO THE NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE NEXT LOW IN THE SEQUENCE THAT
WILL ARRIVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE AND THEREFORE KEEPING SHOWERS AND RAIN ONGOING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN, AS THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE
NORTH, A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ONSHORE AND ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES, PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND BREEZY WINDS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CALM.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THE SECOND OFFSHORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH MORE WIND AND
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE ROUGHLY 4500 FEET AGAIN, SO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO, THE MOISTURE INFLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN THE CURRENT ONE TODAY, SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TREND LOWER, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN, ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND HEADING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THE DETAILS OF ANY APPROACHING
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRONG TREND OF
CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW, OR "TROUGHINESS," WITH ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO ONGOING CLOUDINESS AND THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS, HOWEVER, AS THERE ARE SOME
INDICATION OF A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLE ROUGHLY MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT IS LIKELY TO BE AIMED TO OUR SOUTH IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. -BPN
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM THURSDAY, MARCH 27, 2025...A STRONG SURFACE
LOW IS JUST INSIDE OF 130W. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS (WHICH IS A
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND SPEED OBSERVATION) FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWS
SOLID GALES OVER THE WATERS, AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY WHAT THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL IN THE CARDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS AND
TONIGHT, BUT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE STORM FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A HEAVY LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 14-15 SECONDS WITH VERY HIGH AND
DANGEROUS SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FT WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING.
WE COULD CATCH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT SEAS COULD HOVER NEAR 10 FEET. SEAS WILL THEN DROP
BELOW 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND
HEIGHT OF THE SEAS. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. -PETRUCELLI
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 200 PM THURSDAY, MARCH 27, 2025...A LONG
PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ABOUT 220 DEGREES) WILL RESULT IN
LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
28 TO 33 FEET INTO THE EVENING. SURF WILL REACH PEAK HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN VERY
HIGH INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THESE EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ALONG BEACHES AND AREA SHORELINES. WAVES WILL INUNDATE
BEACHES AND SURGE INTO NORMALLY DRY AREAS. INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED. BEACHES AND COASTLINES
WILL BECOME DANGEROUS DUE TO VERY LARGE AND LIFE-THREATENING SURF
CONDITIONS. STAY OFF OF BEACHES, ROCKS, JETTIES, PIERS, AND OTHER
WATERSIDE INFRASTRUCTURE. -PETRUCELLI
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-
030-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ080.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081-085.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-
376.
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