955
FXUS66 KMFR 281206
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
506 AM PDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS
TODAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET AND EXPECT
CONTINUED PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER MOUNTAINS
(ABOVE 4500 FEET) IN WESTERN SISKIYOU AND IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
OREGON CASCADES (INCLUDING DIAMOND LAKE AND CRATER LAKE). A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY (WSWMFR) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE
LOWERED FOR MOST THE AREA BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY. OF NOTE,
SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST TILL NEAR DAYBREAK ACROSS HIGHER
MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES, THEN LOWER THIS MORNING.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, BUT EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY
BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NEXT, A LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE
WITH A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN, SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (BELOW).
AVIATION...28/12Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY UNIMPACTFUL
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON THIS
MORNING. FLIGHT LEVELS ARE GENERALLY AT VFR, WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT CEILINGS AND FOOSBALL'S AS THEY
CONTINUE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT APPROACH
PRODUCT THRESHOLDS. WINDS EASE EARLY IN THE EVENING. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM FRIDAY, MARCH 28, 2025
A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT MARINE SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY, AND VERY STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS WESTERLY SWELL REMAINS IN AREA WATERS. SWELL HEIGHTS
WILL DECREASE STEADILY BUT REMAIN VERY STEEP THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
STEEP SEAS CONTINUING UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
STABLE WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLY
REBUILDING. A COMPLICATED ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN IS POSSIBLE THE WEEK,
AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COULD PASS OVER THE AREA AND BRING
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND FRESH SWELL. CURRENT FORECASTS
HAVE STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT THE
TIMING AND EXACT SEA STATE WOULD DEPEND IF AND HOW THESE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. -TAD
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 236 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025/
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THE SECOND OFFSHORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH MORE WIND AND
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE ROUGHLY 4500 FEET AGAIN, SO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO, THE MOISTURE INFLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN THE CURRENT ONE TODAY, SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TREND LOWER, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN, ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
BEYOND SUNDAY AND HEADING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ON THE DETAILS OF ANY APPROACHING
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRONG TREND OF
CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW, OR "TROUGHINESS," WITH ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO ONGOING CLOUDINESS AND THE COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS, HOWEVER, AS THERE ARE SOME
INDICATION OF A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLE ROUGHLY MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT IS LIKELY TO BE AIMED TO OUR SOUTH IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ORZ030-
031.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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