084
FXUS66 KMFR 302321
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
421 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION SECTION
AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO COME ONSHORE, AND THIS
WILL HELP EASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT STILL LOOKING AT
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THROUGH HE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WE WILL SEE WIND SUBSIDE, BUT SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS (MVFR/VFR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL
WHICH COULD CREATE SOME VISIBILITY CONCERNS FROM CONVECTION
RAINFALL RATES.
-GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 220 PM PDT SUN MAR 30 2025/
AVIATION...30/18Z TAFS...A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY LIGHT
OFFSHORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS EXIST NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT
WHERE WINDS HAVE ALIGNED (HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY), WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL COULD
BE AN ISSUE IN THOSE AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE (NORTH
BEND/ROSEBURG) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT WINDS TO SURFACE
ABRUPTLY IN THOSE AREAS IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME WITH WIND SHIFT
FROM SE-SW. SIMILARLY, GUSTY SE WINDS HERE AT MEDFORD AND IN KLAMATH
FALLS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SSW THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY INLAND, WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PREVALENT CEILINGS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT ALSO MVFR
AT TIMES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM SUNDAY, MARCH 30, 2025...A COMPACT, BUT
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
CURRENTLY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER, OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO 47KT
AT BUOY 27 BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW,
WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING ONSHORE IN BETWEEN CAPE BLANCO AND NEWPORT BY 5 PM PDT THIS
EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SW BEHIND IT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (AND TO GALE FORCE), ESPECIALLY IN ANY
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
PEAK SEAS OF 13 TO 18 FT AT 12 SECONDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A TAPERING TO STEEP SEAS FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023-024-026-
029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR ORZ027>031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR CAZ080-082-083.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR CAZ082-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
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