320
FXUS66 KMFR 312348
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING, AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME SHOWERS
TODAY HAVE BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO DRAW THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN WELL
BELOW EXPECTED ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW REPORTED IN SOME AREAS DOWN
TO 1300 FEET, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REMAINED MUCH HIGHER,
AND EVEN SOME REPORTS HAVE COME IN OF BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO
ABOUT 2000 FEET.
THE WRAPPED UP SURFACE LOW BRINGING ALL THE MOISTURE, SHOWERS, AND
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW SWINGS THROUGH OVERHEAD, WE EXPECT A BURST OF SHOWER INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET, BUT JUST LIKE
TODAY, HEAVIER PRECIPITATION COULD DRAG SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO MUCH
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE NOT LIKELY
BELOW 2500 TO 3000 FEET, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. IN
SIKIYOU COUNTY, ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTFUL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET IN SIKIYOU COUNTY, WHERE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE LIFT COULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE ELEVATIONS IN SISKIYOU COUNTY
WHICH INCLUDES BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT AND NEARLY ALL AREA PASSES.
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET WILL FALL AND THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
SEE AN INCH PER HOUR IS 70%- 90%, AND BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR EAST SIDE INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 97
CORRIDOR BETWEEN KLAMATH FALLS AND CRESCENT FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME AS THE WARNING. THE HEAVIER SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO FALL
IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD ALSO COME WITH THESE SHOWERS. MORE OF THE DETAILS ON
THESE PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXWSWMFR.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE, AGAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
ACTIVE BUT LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW OPENS UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR AREA
COULD BRING CONTINUING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW POTENTIALLY
ENHANCING SHOWERS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL NUDGE
INLAND AND PASS OVERHEAD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, PRODUCING DRY, WARM, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN THIS RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A MORE
PERSISTENT REX BLOCK PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE POLEWARD/NORTH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM), BUT NOW THE SUITES ARE DEPICTING A MORE
TRANSIENT RIDGE THAT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW ANOTHER
TROUGH AND MORE RAIN AND WIND TO ENTER THE REGION BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. -BPN
AVIATION...01/00Z TAFS
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON. FLIGHT LEVELS ARE GENERALLY AT VFR, WITH SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS. INLAND ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PICK
UP AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY BRINGING LOWER FLIGHT LEVELS TO MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS REMAIN AT 2500-33500 FEET,
ALTHOUGH CONSTANT SHOWERS IN AN AREA MAY BRING THOSE AS LOW AS 1500
FEET. POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY BRING PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. ACTIVITY STARTS TO DECREASE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM MONDAY, MARCH 31, 2025
STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUED
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES AND FRESH SWELL WILL
DOMINATE WITH SEAS PEAKING AT AROUND 13 TO 16 FT AT 10 SECONDS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL FOLLOW WITH SEAS REMAINING STEEP THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH LOW SEAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE OUTLOOK INDICATES
A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL MAY BUILD ON SUNDAY. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR ORZ027>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ080-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ082-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-
356-370-376.
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