603
FXUS66 KMFR 011556
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
DISCUSSION
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MOST IN THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE THREATS RIGHT NOW WITH ANYTHING THAT COMES
INLAND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WAS REVIEWED WITH A CONCERN INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPES ACROSS EAST SIDE ARE INCREASING TO 50-150
J/KG AND LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 7-9 C/KM, AND THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME
LIGHTNING. THE CONCERN WITH PUTTING THESE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDER OUT IS THAT AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCING SNOW. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE RISING MORE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND IN RETURN A CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE COLD MASS THAT CAME IN YESTERDAY IS KEEPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH MORE 40S
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ISOLATED 50S IN COOS COUNTY AT THE COAST AND
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL AROUND 2,500 TO 3,500
FEET THIS MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RUSE ABOVE 4,000 FEET IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST IN NORTHERN OREGON/WASHINGTON,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF SISKIYOU
COUNTY WHICH INCLUDES THE KLAMATH AND TRINITY MOUNTAINS AND ETNA
SUMMIT. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER -10 INCHES WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE 2-6 INCHES
IS FORECAST FOR REMAINING AREAS IN THE WARNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR EAST SIDE INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 97
CORRIDOR BETWEEN KLAMATH FALLS AND CRESCENT FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME
AS THE WARNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO COME WITH THESE
SHOWERS. MORE OF THE DETAILS ON THESE PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
PDXWSWMFR.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE
COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER 0.50"-1.00". OTHER AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL
COME IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CASCADES OUTSIDE OF
THE ADVISORIES WILL OVERALL SEE ANOTHER 1" TO 3" OF SNOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN. WHILE THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF INTO
WEDNESDAY OVERALL ANOTHER 2-4" IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5,500' THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THAT WILL BE IMPACTING US THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
THEN DIG FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAT THIS SETUP
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED. -
HERMANSEN
AVIATION...01/12Z TAFS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE (5-15%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FT MSL WILL RISE TO AROUND 4000 TO 4500 FT
MSL THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR, BUT IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, AFTER 00Z, WITH
VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.
-DW
MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2025
GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN, NORTH WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOW SEAS EXPECTED.
THE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL ON SUNDAY, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BECOMING HIGH AND
STEEP INTO MONDAY. -DW/SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ027>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-
082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ082-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
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