483
FXUS66 KMFR 012335
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
435 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR, NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE AREA, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CASCADES/SISKIYOUS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE HOVERING AROUND 3500-4000 FT, AND SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADWAYS ARE QUICKLY MELTING WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SO
ROADWAY IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT NPWMFR.
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PACNW TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE ROGUE-UMPQUA DIVIDE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRYING
AIR MASS. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY
COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT A
COUPLE OF BREEZY DAYS WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND AND DRY PERIOD TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 70S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
AREAS OF FOG IN SOME VALLEYS DURING THE MORNINGS, BUT IT'S GETTING
PRETTY LATE IN THE YEAR FOR FOG TO LINGER TOO LONG INTO THE DAY. SO
EVEN IF IT STARTS OUT CLOUDY IN THE MORNINGS, EXPECT WARM AND SUNNY
AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND BREAK
UP THE RIDGE PATTERN. THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY STRONG AND SNOW
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY FORECAST TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FT.
THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING TIME FRONT, BRINGING A DOSE
OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WARM AND DRY
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REBOUND AFTER THIS FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /BR-Y
AVIATION...02/00Z TAFS
RAIN SHOWERS (WEST OF THE CASCADES) AND
SNOW SHOWERS (OVER THE CASCADES AND TO THE EAST) CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA. FLIGHT LEVELS
VARY ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWERS PASS OVER AREAS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED AT MULTIPLE INLAND METAR SITES, WITH VFR BEING REPORTED AT
NORTH BEND AND BROOKINGS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR MAY BE
POSSIBLE UNDER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
SHOWERS CAN LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS. SLIGHT (10-15%)
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
STAYING OUT OF THE AREA SO FAR. THESE CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND ARE ABSENT TONIGHT.
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE (40-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST OF AND ALONG THE CASCADES. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNIMPACTFUL. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2025
GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, NORTH WINDS
INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF A BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ON SUNDAY,
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BECOMING HIGH AND STEEP INTO MONDAY. -DW/SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ027>031.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ080-
082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ082-
085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
MNF/MAS
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